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On the Flat it pays to go versus the crowd and to focus your betting focus on the toughest races on the programme….
The big-area useful handicaps are referred to as reward races for the bookmaker. But that so-identified as ‘received wisdom’ completely misses the point…
Racing punters like us have one particular gigantic first edge about the bookmakers….
The bookies have to enjoy in each and every race….
If there is a race to be operate on a British or an Irish racecourse, the bookmaker is virtually honour-bound to selling price it up, sort a market and to lay bets.
It would be a peculiar bookmaker that refused to do so. I undoubtedly can not try to remember the previous time that situation – or 1 even remotely like it – unfolded.
A bookie who does not want to put up a current market for a horse race is a bookmaker who will pretty before long be out of small business.
The bookmaker has to play. But we punters do not….
We punters are totally free to choose and decide on in which races we participate in.
We can appear at any day’s playing cards and we can just take a view on the races we want to perform in and the races we want to leave by itself.
We can opt for to participate in in races where we experience we have an edge or an benefit.
We can adhere to the races where our viewpoints are strongest.
We can confine our bets to these races where we feel we know a thing strong.
We punters can choose and choose where by we perform….
So it could possibly shock you to find out that every summer that ever will come alongside I opt for to engage in in the races deemed most advantageous to the bookmaker – the races referred to as the hardest on the racing programme….
Why I perform most in the hardest races on the programme….
If you have been to request me what is my favourite type of horse race to guess in then I would have to be genuine and explain to you that I like the significant-area beneficial handicaps on the flat – especially people run at trips concerning 5f and 9f….
I can guarantee you that you will not discover too lots of punters stating the same point….
The truth is that my choices go incredibly a lot against the grain.
Most punters and pundits would convey to you I’m round the twist.
A ton of punters run a mile from that unique form of betting warmth….
Flat handicaps are viewed as anything of a lottery. Big fields of properly-matched horses – all with very similar ranges of skill – belting up a straight monitor current an impenetrable puzzle as considerably as most punters are concerned….
A whole lot of punters will convey to you that the final result is down to pure luck.
Some others will convey to you that the horses choose turns to earn.
An additional team will assure you that anybody betting on the end result in this sort of races could possibly as effectively set mild to their funds right before the race starts off….
The large flat handicaps are observed by lots of as ‘benefit races’ – races operate purely for the advantage of the bookmaker….
And I cannot argue with the actuality that the bookies are awfully eager to sponsor these kinds of races and to place up precious prize pots.
They definitely really don’t display these types of largesse for nothing at all. Such races ought to establish profitable – masking the charge of the sponsorship work and a lot more moreover – or the bookie would not be placing his hand in his pocket in the first place.
And I have to concede anything else. The significant-area handicaps give the bookmaker an opportunity to guess to over-round percentages so big – raising the notional financial gain the bookie would make on the race if he can stability his ebook – your toes curl up.
But – even with all those people arguments built and approved – very little will shake me from my check out that the major handicaps are the ideal races a punter can be betting in….
Go where the bookie receives it mistaken most generally….
I get the argument about the tough nature of the puzzle this sort of races existing.
Of study course I do. I’ve been in and all over this sport for the final 25 years. And 1 of the initial lessons you understand is that it isn’t quick for the punter to locate a winner in a significant handicap. This kind of races are in truth intensely aggressive and difficult to phone.
But there is a reasonable extension to that observation – a potent actuality that also requires to be taken into consideration:
If the flat handicaps are tricky races to phone for punters, they are also difficult for the bookmaker to get ideal.
Or, set a further way, supplied the character of the race, it is effortless for the bookmaker to get something completely wrong in a flat handicap….
And for me which is a situation that very a great deal satisfies the way I perform the race-betting video game – simply because I extremely much want to be playing in areas exactly where the bookmaker is generating issues most routinely.
As a dyed-in-the-wool benefit-looking for punter my goal is always to be seeking out and betting the horses about which the bookmaker is providing the incorrect price – a cost that under-estimates a horse’s genuine odds of profitable an particular person race….
In massive flat handicaps in which fields of 16 to 27 horses might be heading to publish, the bookie has a large amount he has to get ideal….
So there are also a good deal of possibilities for him to get some thing wrong…. to get an viewpoint about a horse improper…. to neglect a horse…. to less than-estimate one…. to…
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